Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Swansea or Wrexham
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Swansea@ 2.18
Model −2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.45
Model −1 vs market
2 Wrexham@ 3.35
Model +2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Swansea or draw69%
Draw or Wrexham58%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Swansea | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 12th |
| 10 | Points | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 13th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 5th | Defence rank | 17th |
| 1558 | Elo | 1543 |
| 13 | Form pts (last 5) | 6 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Swansea21 / 30 pts
- WSwansea2–0Watford
- W
Derby County0–3Swansea - DSwansea0–0Sheffield Utd
- W
Stoke1–2Swansea - WSwansea3–1Charlton
- D
Norwich1–1Swansea - W
QPR1–2Swansea - LSwansea1–2Southampton
- W
Leicester City FC0–1Swansea - DSwansea2–2Middlesbrough
Wrexham12 / 30 pts
- W
Millwall0–3Wrexham - LWrexham1–2Birmingham
- DWrexham1–1Watford
- D
Cardiff1–1Wrexham - DWrexham2–2Middlesbrough
- L
Coventry City3–1Wrexham - W
Oxford United FC0–1Wrexham - WWrexham2–0Stoke
- LBirmingham2–0Wrexham
- LWrexham1–5Southampton
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Swansea edge it at 42%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Swansea arrive with 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For Wrexham it reads 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats over the last 10. At home Swansea have won 2 of their last 5; Wrexham have taken 7 of 15 points on their travels. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 56%. Model and market broadly agree on Swansea (42% vs an implied 44%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Swansea vs Wrexham?
Our model's most likely outcome is Swansea win, with probabilities of 42% for a Swansea win, 27% for a draw and 31% for an Wrexham win.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Wrexham?
The model puts both teams scoring at 56% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Swansea vs Wrexham?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Swansea or draw 69%, draw or Wrexham 58%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Swansea vs Wrexham kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Swansea vs Wrexham being played?
The match is scheduled for Liberty Stadium, the home ground of Swansea.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.