Championship · Matchday 6 · Carrow Road
Norwich vs Birmingham prediction
Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Norwich or Birmingham
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Norwich or draw72%
Draw or Birmingham56%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.547%
Over 3.526%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 53% · 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Norwich | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Position | 10th |
| 3 | Points | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 7th | Attack rank | 16th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 6th |
| 1538 | Elo | 1508 |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Norwich13 / 30 pts
Birmingham17 / 30 pts
- DBirmingham1–1Southampton
- W
Wrexham1–2Birmingham - DBirmingham2–2Bristol City
- D
Sheffield Utd0–0Birmingham - D
Portsmouth1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–1Bristol City
- WBirmingham2–1Preston NE
- D
Hull City1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–0Wrexham
- L
Ipswich Town2–1Birmingham
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Norwich edge it at 44%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Norwich arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Birmingham it reads 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Norwich have won 2 of their last 5; Birmingham have taken 6 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 3 Norwich wins, 0 draws, 3 for Birmingham. The fixture has produced 3.0 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 6. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 47%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Norwich vs Birmingham?
Our model's most likely outcome is Norwich win, with probabilities of 44% for a Norwich win, 28% for a draw and 28% for an Birmingham win.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Birmingham?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Norwich vs Birmingham?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Norwich or draw 72%, draw or Birmingham 56%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Norwich vs Birmingham kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-09 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Norwich vs Birmingham being played?
The match is scheduled for Carrow Road, the home ground of Norwich.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.