Championship · Matchday 5 · St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium
Birmingham vs Wolverhampton prediction
Best picks
Birmingham or Wolverhampton
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Birmingham@ 2.90
Model +8 vs market
X Draw@ 3.25
Model −3 vs market
2 Wolverhampton@ 2.45
Model −5 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Birmingham or draw67%
Draw or Wolverhampton59%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.533%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 45% · 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Birmingham | Wolverhampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Position | 5th |
| 6 | Points | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 2.8 |
| 16th | Attack rank | 2nd |
| 6th | Defence rank | 24th |
| 1508 | Elo | 1509 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Birmingham17 / 30 pts
- DBirmingham1–1Southampton
- W
Wrexham1–2Birmingham - DBirmingham2–2Bristol City
- D
Sheffield Utd0–0Birmingham - D
Portsmouth1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–1Bristol City
- WBirmingham2–1Preston NE
- D
Hull City1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–0Wrexham
- L
Ipswich Town2–1Birmingham
Wolverhampton10 / 30 pts
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
Birmingham are narrow favourites at 41% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Birmingham: 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat across the last 10. Wolverhampton bring 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Birmingham, while Wolverhampton collected 4/15 away points in that stretch. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 55%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 59%. Our 41% on Birmingham sits above the market's implied 33% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Birmingham vs Wolverhampton?
Our model's most likely outcome is Birmingham win, with probabilities of 41% for a Birmingham win, 26% for a draw and 33% for an Wolverhampton win.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Wolverhampton?
The model puts both teams scoring at 59% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Birmingham vs Wolverhampton?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Birmingham or draw 67%, draw or Wolverhampton 59%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Birmingham vs Wolverhampton kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 11:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Birmingham vs Wolverhampton being played?
The match is scheduled for St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium, the home ground of Birmingham.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.