Weekend football predictions

Saturday and Sunday carry most of a league season's fixtures, and volume is what makes them deceptive: across a full weekend card, several results will land at probabilities the model called long, and a handful of heavy favourites will lose. That is not the model failing — it is what a set of honest probabilities looks like over thirty-odd matches. Judging a weekend by whether the top pick came in is the single most common way to misread a record; the full ledger is the only sample worth reading.

This hub covers the coming Saturday and Sunday across every competition we model, grouped by day and then by league. A fixture appears here only once the model has priced it, so a round announced but not yet rated is absent rather than listed blank. Midweek rounds and everything further out live on the main predictions hub, and the next day alone on tomorrow.

A full card is the natural home of the multiple, and the arithmetic is unkind: four legs at 70% each is a ticket that lands under a quarter of the time, because probabilities multiply. The accumulator calculator prints that combined chance next to the returns so the two can be read together, and the maths behind it is written up in full.

By Monday every call on this card has been settled, won or lost, on the track record, with the sample size beside every rate. A weekend that went badly stays there in full — it is the only way an accuracy figure means anything.