Blog
How prediction models actually work, what betting markets really price, and how to judge anyone's tips — including ours, whose track record is public.
The Brier score: how to judge a football prediction model
Accuracy alone can't tell a good predictor from a lucky one. The Brier score can — here's how it works and what good values look like in football.
Both teams to score (BTTS): a probability guide
What drives BTTS, why it's subtly different from Over/Under, and how to price it from a scoreline grid — with real base rates.
How football prediction algorithms actually work
Ratings, Poisson goals and probabilities — what's really inside a football prediction model, explained without hype by a team that publishes its own results.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: what the market really prices
Why 2.5 is the line, what actually drives totals, and how a goal model prices Over/Under — with base rates from 14,000+ real matches.
The Poisson distribution in football, explained with real numbers
Why one 19th-century formula still powers most football prediction models — how it works, where it breaks, and the correction that fixes it.
Why most 'value bets' aren't: closing odds and market efficiency
We built a value-bet detector, backtested it against three seasons of closing odds, and it lost money. Here's what that teaches about betting markets.