Blog topics
The archive runs newest first, which is the wrong order for everything on it that doesn't expire. Here it is by subject instead.
Football betting guides
How football betting markets are actually priced — 1X2, over/under, Asian handicap, BTTS and the rest — plus the odds and staking maths underneath them. No tips, no systems, just the arithmetic.
17 articles
How football prediction models work
Inside the models that price football matches: Poisson and Dixon-Coles, Elo, xG, time decay, home advantage — what each one adds, and the things no goal model can see.
21 articles
Prediction accuracy and how to check it
How accurate football predictions really are, the scoring rules that measure it — Brier, log loss, calibration — and the five-step test you can run on any prediction site, including this one.
11 articles
League predictions and league maths
What each league we model actually looks like in the data — draw rates, home advantage, how predictable it is — plus the table maths: points targets, tiebreakers, games in hand.
12 articles
Match analysis and round-ups
Individual fixtures and matchday round-ups read through the model: where it disagrees with the market price, why, and what the number is doing that the narrative isn't.
24 articles