What FootInsights is
FootInsights is an independent football predictions project — no tipster team, no paid subscriptions, no affiliations with bookmakers. The predictions come from a statistical model, not from opinions: the methodology page describes exactly which models, which data, and where they fall short. Rather than asking you to trust whoever is behind the site, we publish everything needed to judge the work itself.
Why it exists
Football prediction sites almost never show you their failures. Records get quietly edited, bad months disappear, and "verified" win rates are unverifiable. FootInsights started from the opposite premise: publish every prediction before kick-off, grade it in public after the final whistle, and keep it forever. Whether the model is good is something you should be able to check, not something we get to claim.
The rules we hold ourselves to
- Append-only record. Every prediction is written before kick-off with a timestamp and model version, and the track record can never be edited or pruned — the database role that writes it has no permission to update or delete.
- No invented numbers. Where data is missing we show nothing, not a placeholder. Accuracy only ever appears with its sample size attached.
- Honest about the ceiling. Our backtests show the betting market's closing odds ahead of our model. We publish that gap instead of hiding it.
- Free and open. No registration, no paywall, and the full graded ledger is downloadable as an open dataset under CC BY 4.0.
- Not betting advice. Probabilities are estimates with known limits. The responsible-gambling notice at the foot of every page is not decoration.
How it's built
The site is deliberately simple: a static site (Astro) rebuilt several times a day, a Postgres database (Supabase), and a Python pipeline on GitHub Actions that ingests results from football-data.org, refits the model, and writes the predictions. No tracking beyond privacy-friendly aggregate analytics, no ads, no popups.