Track record
Every prediction we publish is recorded before kick-off and graded after the final whistle — then it stays here forever. No cherry-picking, no quiet deletions, no invented win rates.How the model works →
All leagues, all time
Match result (1X2)
67%
accuracy over 3 settled predictions
Brier score 0.573
Both teams to score
0%
accuracy over 3 settled predictions
Brier score 0.587
Over/Under 2.5
33%
accuracy over 3 settled predictions
Brier score 0.578
Brier score measures probability quality (lower is better; always guessing the historical league frequencies scores ≈ 0.65 on 1X2).
By league
| League | Market | Accuracy | Brier | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primera Division | Match result (1X2) | 100% | 0.437 | 1 |
| Both teams to score | 0% | 0.552 | 1 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 0% | 0.515 | 1 | |
| Primeira Liga | Match result (1X2) | 50% | 0.641 | 2 |
| Both teams to score | 0% | 0.605 | 2 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 50% | 0.609 | 2 |
Latest settled predictions
- 2026-08-16Famalicão 1–2 MarítimoHome win (48%)✗ miss
- 2026-08-16Arouca 4–0 MoreirenseHome win (47%)✓ hit
- 2026-08-16Espanyol 3–0 LevanteHome win (46%)✓ hit
Model dc-0.1.0. Settlement is automatic and append-only — the database role that writes predictions has no permission to update or delete them.