League predictions and league maths
Leagues are not interchangeable. The Premier League draws least of the nine domestic competitions we model and the Brasileirão draws most; Serie A gives the home side the least and the Bundesliga produces three quarters of a goal more per match than Brazil. Those differences decide how a model behaves and how far a record built in one league transfers to another. These posts cover each competition on its own terms, and the table arithmetic that goes with them — what 40 points really buys, what a game in hand is worth, and how tiebreakers are actually resolved.
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Which football league is easiest to predict?
Most answers to this are opinion — MLS, Ligue 1, Scotland. We measured it instead, using the closing market's own record across nine leagues and 16,628 matches.
LeaguesBrasileirão predictions: the tightest league we model
Brazil's Série A draws more, scores less and defends home ground harder than any of the nine leagues in our dataset. Here's what that does to a prediction.
Leagues
Champions League 2026-27 draw: what the fixture computer handed each club
The Champions League 2026-27 league phase draw in numbers: 144 fixtures, a 99% favourite, one true coin flip, and the model's first read on matchday 1.
LeaguesEuropa League 2026-27 draw: the league phase, now tracked on FootInsights
The Europa League 2026-27 league phase draw: 36 clubs, 144 fixtures from 16 September to 28 January — and why our predictions for it arrive only after calibration.
LeaguesBundesliga predictions: the league where the result tells you least
The Bundesliga leads our data in goals, Over 2.5 and BTTS while its 1X2 split is dead average. That combination decides where a German prediction is worth having.
LeaguesChampionship predictions: the league where the table lies
The Championship has the tightest margins of any competition we model — just 12.2% end by three goals or more — across a 46-game season. Compression is the whole story.
LeaguesEredivisie predictions: the goals come from mismatches
The Eredivisie is our second-highest scoring league and has the highest blowout rate of any domestic competition we model — 21.6%. Those two facts are the same fact.
LeaguesLa Liga predictions: home sides rarely lose, and rarely by much
La Liga has Europe's strongest home advantage and its narrowest margins: 72.0% of matches end home or draw, and only 13.1% by three goals or more.
LeaguesLigue 1 predictions: the league whose reputation the data will not support
Ligue 1 is not the league of blowouts its reputation claims: 15.3% end by three or more, below England and Germany. What the data says instead.
LeaguesPremier League predictions: the league that refuses to draw
The Premier League draws less than any competition we model — 23.8%. What that does to double chance, to promoted clubs, and to the sharpest odds in football.
LeaguesPrimeira Liga predictions: the league where goals are not shared
Portugal is the only domestic league we model where 1-0 is the most common scoreline, and it has the lowest BTTS rate at 49.1%. One side scores; the other does not.
LeaguesSerie A predictions: the league that gives the home side least
Serie A has the weakest home advantage of any competition we model — a 7.8-point gap — and Europe's highest draw rate. What that does to a prediction, and why.