Prediction accuracy and how to check it
"90% accurate" is not a claim, it is a missing denominator. These posts are about the difference: what a prediction record has to contain before it means anything, which scoring rules can be gamed and which cannot, how large a sample has to be before a win rate beats a coin, and how to run the same audit on us that we run on everyone else. Our own numbers live on the public track record, misses included, which is the only version of this argument worth making.
23 articles
PredictZ accuracy: the ten-minute verifiability test for any tips site
Searching for PredictZ accuracy numbers finds claims nobody outside can check. Five properties decide whether any prediction record is verifiable — here's the test.
TransparencyAre paid football tips worth it? The break-even math
Are paid football tips worth it? Work out the yield a subscription must clear to pay for itself, and what a record has to show before you believe it.
TransparencyFootyStats predictions: turning a stat into a probability you can check
FootyStats predictions start from team stats like BTTS in 70% of games. What that percentage is worth for one match, and four checks before you bet on it.
TransparencyWhy football stats differ between sites (and what it does to predictions)
Two sites, one match, different numbers. Why football stats differ between sites — collection, definitions, revisions — and what it does to a prediction model.
TransparencyHow our football Bet of the Day is picked
Our Bet of the Day is picked by the model, not a hunch: its single most confident call of the day at a price worth taking, free, with every past pick settled in public.
TransparencyThe ranked probability score in football, and when it beats Brier
The ranked probability score in football, explained: the cumulative formula, why a draw sits between two wins, and when it beats a Brier score.
TransparencyFixed match scams: how they actually work
Match-fixing is real. A stranger selling you access to it is not. The economics of why, the mechanics of the con, and the checks that survive contact with a good sales pitch.
TransparencyAre AI Football Predictions Real, or Just Statistics With a New Label?
Are AI football predictions real? Most 'AI-powered' tips sites run the same statistics prediction sites always have. Here's how to tell the difference.
TransparencyWhy football prediction models disagree, and how to read the gap
Why football prediction models disagree on the same match, what the size of the gap actually tells you, and which model deserves the benefit of the doubt.
TransparencyHow to spot a fake football tipster: five tests you can run
How to spot a fake football tipster with arithmetic instead of instinct: five tests on win-rate claims, advised odds, settlement rules and sample size.
TransparencyStatistical significance in a betting record: the test and its limits
How to test statistical significance in a betting record: the right null hypothesis, a worked z-test, and why a p-value under 0.05 still isn't proof.
TransparencySurvivorship bias in betting: why a winning tipster always exists
Survivorship bias in betting, with the arithmetic: how pure chance manufactures a flawless tipster record, and the record structure that can't be faked.
TransparencyHow to compare football prediction sites: a fair test in five steps
Most rankings compare numbers that were never comparable. How to compare football prediction sites properly: one shared fixture set, one market, one score.
TransparencyWhy football prediction sites are free
Free tips are not charity. Four business models fund this industry, each rewards something different, and knowing which one you're reading tells you what the predictions are optimised for.
TransparencyClosing line value in football betting: what CLV proves and what it doesn't
Closing line value explained for football: the decimal-odds formula, the de-vig step most guides skip, and why CLV converges far faster than profit.
TransparencySample size in betting: how many bets before a record means anything?
Sample size in betting, explained: the variance math showing how many bets a record needs before its win rate or ROI means anything at all.
TransparencyHow accurate is Forebet? How to check any prediction site yourself
Nobody outside a prediction site can confirm the accuracy it advertises — including ours. Here is the 30-day audit that settles the question for any site you rely on.
TransparencyWhat is a good Brier score in football predictions?
What is a good Brier score? It depends on which formula, which benchmark and how many matches — the arithmetic that turns a raw number into an answer.
TransparencyHow accurate are football predictions? The honest ceiling
How accurate are football predictions, really? The math that caps even a flawless model near 50-55% — and why a bigger headline number is a warning sign.
TransparencyCalibration in football predictions: does 70% really mean 70%?
Calibration in football predictions, explained: what a trustworthy 70% looks like, how to read a reliability diagram, and why overconfidence is the norm.
TransparencyHow to verify a football tipster's track record
Screenshots lie, win rates mislead and hot streaks mean nothing. A practical checklist for verifying any football tipster's track record — ours included.
TransparencyThe Brier score: how to judge a football prediction model
Accuracy alone cannot tell a good predictor from a lucky one. The Brier score can — how it works, what good values look like in football, and how to read one honestly.
TransparencyWhy most 'value bets' aren't: closing odds and market efficiency
Most value bets are a model's own miscalibration wearing a discount. What closing line value actually measures, why closing odds are so hard to beat, and how ours are held to it.