Prediction accuracy and how to check it
"90% accurate" is not a claim, it is a missing denominator. These posts are about the difference: what a prediction record has to contain before it means anything, which scoring rules can be gamed and which cannot, how large a sample has to be before a win rate beats a coin, and how to run the same audit on us that we run on everyone else. Our own numbers live on the public track record, misses included, which is the only version of this argument worth making.
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How to compare football prediction sites: a fair test in five steps
Most rankings compare numbers that were never comparable. How to compare football prediction sites properly: one shared fixture set, one market, one score.
TransparencyWhy football prediction sites are free
Free tips are not charity. Four business models fund this industry, each rewards something different, and knowing which one you're reading tells you what the predictions are optimised for.
TransparencyClosing line value in football betting: what CLV proves and what it doesn't
Closing line value explained for football: the decimal-odds formula, the de-vig step most guides skip, and why CLV converges far faster than profit.
TransparencySample size in betting: how many bets before a record means anything?
Sample size in betting, explained: the variance math showing how many bets a record needs before its win rate or ROI means anything at all.
TransparencyHow accurate is Forebet? How to check any prediction site yourself
Nobody outside a prediction site can confirm the accuracy it advertises — including ours. Here is the 30-day audit that settles the question for any site you rely on.
TransparencyWhat is a good Brier score in football predictions?
What is a good Brier score? It depends on which formula, which benchmark and how many matches — the arithmetic that turns a raw number into an answer.
TransparencyHow accurate are football predictions? The honest ceiling
How accurate are football predictions, really? The math that caps even a flawless model near 50-55% — and why a bigger headline number is a warning sign.
TransparencyCalibration in football predictions: does 70% really mean 70%?
Calibration in football predictions, explained: what a trustworthy 70% looks like, how to read a reliability diagram, and why overconfidence is the norm.
TransparencyHow to verify a football tipster's track record
Screenshots lie, win rates mislead and hot streaks mean nothing. A practical checklist for verifying any football tipster's track record — ours included.
TransparencyThe Brier score: how to judge a football prediction model
Accuracy alone cannot tell a good predictor from a lucky one. The Brier score can — how it works, what good values look like in football, and how to read one honestly.
TransparencyWhy most 'value bets' aren't: closing odds and market efficiency
We built a value-bet detector, backtested it against three seasons of closing odds, and it lost 17.6%. The post-mortem, and what closing line value actually measures.