Match analysis and round-ups
These are worked examples rather than tips. Each one takes a fixture — or a whole matchday — that the model priced before kick-off and explains what drove the number: a promoted side with no top-flight history to fit against, a clean-sheet streak the data values less than the table does, a round where every home favourite came out narrow. Every figure is read from the same database that produces the live predictions, and every call is graded afterwards whether it landed or not.
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Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: what a clean-sheet streak is worth to a probability
Barcelona have not conceded in La Liga this season, or to Rayo at home in four meetings. Our model still makes both teams to score a 48.4% shot. That is deliberate.
Match preview
Juventus vs Parma: why our model refuses to follow the market to 78%
The market prices Juventus at roughly 78% to beat Parma. Our model says 55.6%. That 22-point gap is what early-season sample size looks like in a probability.
Round-up
La Liga matchday 1: what a round played across twelve days does to a model
La Liga's opening round ran from 15 to 27 August. Our predictions for it were built from wildly different amounts of evidence — and three fixtures have no prediction at all.
Match preview
Napoli vs Como: a home probability under 40% for a side that finished second
Our model gives Napoli 39.4% at the Maradona and Como 33.2%. It is the flattest 1X2 split in the Serie A round, and the goals line is low too. Here is what produces that.
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Sevilla vs Atlético: the fixture-list problem our model cannot see
Atlético start a forced run of three straight away games because their stadium is unavailable. Our model has no field for that. Here is what it prices instead.
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Aston Villa vs Arsenal: when the draw is more likely than the home win
Our model makes Villa Park a 26.3% home win and a 26.7% draw. A Premier League home side ranked third at its own ground is rare — here is what produces it.
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Coventry vs Hull: when a prediction model has no real favourite
Our model splits this 37.0 / 27.3 / 35.7 — a 1.3-point gap between home and away. The market has it at 29 points. Only one of those is an honest answer.
Round-up
Serie A matchday 1: the round that punished narrow home favourites
Three Serie A openers had our model backing the home side without conviction. All three finished 0-1, 0-2 and 0-1 to the away team. That pattern is worth examining.
Match preview
Leeds vs Brentford: when our confidence score sits below our own probability
Our model makes Leeds 38.4% favourites at Elland Road but publishes 30.7% confidence. That gap is not rounding — it is two model components disagreeing.
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Lille vs PSG: a twelve-point gap between our model and the market
The market makes PSG 54% at Lille. Our model says 41.7%. One parameter explains most of that gap, and it is a parameter we have not tuned away.
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Man United vs Ipswich: how little one shock defeat actually moves a model
United lost 2-0 at Hull and our model still makes them 58.8% favourites against Ipswich. Here is the arithmetic that caps how far one result can move a rating.
Round-up
What Premier League matchday 1 told us about pricing promoted clubs
The market made the three promoted clubs near-certain losers. Our model priced them far higher. Two of three won — and the same caution cost us at the Emirates.
Match preview
Barcelona vs Athletic Club: what a postponed matchday 1 does to a model
Barcelona play matchday 1 on 27 August, after matchday 2. What a postponed opening fixture does to a prediction model is not what you would guess.
Round-up
What Championship matchday 2 told us about defence ratings in August
Three of the division's weakest-rated attacks put eight goals past better-rated defences. What a defence rating is actually worth in August.
Match preview
Flamengo vs Botafogo: the derby column our model does not have
A clássico at the Maracanã, and our model gives Flamengo 60.1%. Do prediction models account for derbies? Ours does not, and here is what that costs.
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Fulham vs Chelsea: how much should a new manager move a match probability?
Two managerial debuts at Craven Cottage, and a market that disagrees with our model by 17 points. How much should a new manager move a match probability?
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Köln vs Hoffenheim: when the goals line is surer than the result
Our model cannot separate Köln and Hoffenheim, yet it is confident about goals. When the goals line is surer than the result, the ratings explain why.
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Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: what back-to-back wins at one ground are worth
Forest have won their last two visits to Anfield, a first since 1963. What back-to-back wins at one ground are worth to a model, put through a noise test.
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Tottenham vs Newcastle: when our model backs the away team
Our model backs the away team at Tottenham. Here is how big a rating gap it takes to beat home advantage, and why this particular call is fragile.
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Bayern vs Stuttgart: what a perfect opening-matchday record is worth
Bayern's Bundesliga opening-matchday record is unbeaten since 2011 and they beat Stuttgart four times last season. Our model still says 67.9%. Here's why.
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Crystal Palace vs Man City: how much one absence changes a probability
Jeremy Doku is out with a calf injury. We put a number on how much one absence changes a match probability — and on what our model never saw at all.
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Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: when expected goals and the result disagree
Real Sociedad lost at Betis while creating the better chances. What our model does when expected goals and the result column point opposite ways.
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Atlético vs Málaga: when the market knows more than our model
Our model gives Atlético 58%; the market says 73%. The gap is Málaga — a promoted club with zero matches in our dataset. An honest look at a model limit.
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Newcastle vs Liverpool: the tightest call of opening weekend
Liverpool have won four of the last five meetings, yet our model makes the Premier League opener at St James' Park a statistical coin flip. Here's why.