Blog — page 2
How prediction models actually work, what betting markets really price, and how to judge anyone's tips — including ours, whose track record is public.
First team to score betting: the formula that prices the market
First team to score betting explained: the competing-Poisson formula that prices it, a worked example, and why the margin hides in the No Goal price.
TransparencyHow to compare football prediction sites: a fair test in five steps
Most rankings compare numbers that were never comparable. How to compare football prediction sites properly: one shared fixture set, one market, one score.
ModelMonte Carlo simulation in football: predicting a whole season
Monte Carlo simulation in football, explained: how thousands of simulated seasons turn match probabilities into title and relegation odds — and their limits.
ModelCan you beat the bookmaker with maths?
Yes, in principle — and almost nobody does. What the closing market actually gets right, why apparent edges are usually model error, and what a public record proves.
LeaguesWhich football league is easiest to predict?
Most answers to this are opinion — MLS, Ligue 1, Scotland. We measured it instead, using the closing market's own record across nine leagues and 16,628 matches.
LeaguesBrasileirão predictions: the tightest league we model
Brazil's Série A draws more, scores less and defends home ground harder than any of the nine leagues in our dataset. Here's what that does to a prediction.
Betting 101Correct score betting: why the most likely score is still unlikely
Correct score betting, priced honestly: how a scoreline grid ranks every result, why even the top pick sits near 12%, and why this market's margin is the worst.
ModelThe Elo rating system in football: strengths and blind spots
How the Elo rating system in football turns results into ratings and ratings into probabilities — the formulas, the draw problem, and what Elo cannot price.
Betting 101The favourite-longshot bias: why longshots cost more than they pay
The favourite-longshot bias explained: why longshot odds hide bigger margins than favourites, the math behind it, and how to spot it in any betting record.
ModelHome advantage in football: what it's worth and why it exists
What home advantage in football is really worth, where it comes from, why it keeps shrinking, and how prediction models turn it into a number.
Betting 101How often does the favourite win in football?
Published answers range from under 50% to 58%. Across 16,628 matches with closing odds in nine leagues, the favourite wins 53.1% — and the league matters more than you'd think.
Betting 101What is the most common football score?
1-1, in 12.2% of matches — but the answer changes depending on whether you count scorelines or results. The full distribution from 16,992 matches across nine leagues.
ModelWhy is football so hard to predict?
Not because the teams are unknowable. Because football is low-scoring, and a sport where one goal decides everything hands most of the outcome to variance.
Betting 101Accumulator betting math: why big odds are smaller than they look
Accumulator betting math without the hype: how bookmaker margins compound with every leg, why correlated picks mislead, and how to price a multiple honestly.
Betting 101Betting odds formats explained: decimal, fractional and American
Betting odds formats explained with conversions in both directions — and why the format a book shows you decides how easily you can see what it is charging.
Betting 101BTTS rates by league: five seasons of real numbers
BTTS rates by league, measured on 16,000+ matches from 2021-22 to 2025-26: the Bundesliga clears 60%, the Brasileirão sits under 49%, and why the gap matters.
Leagues
Champions League 2026-27 draw: what the fixture computer handed each club
The Champions League 2026-27 league phase draw in numbers: 144 fixtures, a 99% favourite, one true coin flip, and the model's first read on matchday 1.
LeaguesEuropa League 2026-27 draw: the league phase, now tracked on FootInsights
The Europa League 2026-27 league phase draw: 36 clubs, 144 fixtures from 16 September to 28 January — and why our predictions for it arrive only after calibration.
ModelHow injuries affect football predictions: putting a number on absence
How injuries affect football predictions, quantified: what a key absence is worth in goals, why the market prices it first, and when team news really matters.
Betting 101The Kelly criterion in football betting: how much to stake on an edge
The Kelly criterion in football betting, explained with worked examples — the formula, why full Kelly ruins bankrolls, and why calibration decides everything.
Betting 101Over 2.5 goals rates by league: the real numbers, 2021-2026
Over 2.5 goals rates by league from 16,000+ matches: the Champions League hits 64%, the Brasileirão 44%, and the 'overs land half the time' rule fails everywhere.
TransparencyWhy football prediction sites are free
Free tips are not charity. Four business models fund this industry, each rewards something different, and knowing which one you're reading tells you what the predictions are optimised for.
TransparencyClosing line value in football betting: what CLV proves and what it doesn't
Closing line value explained for football: the decimal-odds formula, the de-vig step most guides skip, and why CLV converges far faster than profit.
Betting 101How cash out is calculated in football betting, and what it costs
How cash out is calculated in football betting: the formula behind the offer, the second margin hidden inside it, and what it does to a track record.