Championship · Matchday 6 · iPro Stadium
Derby County vs West Brom prediction
Best picks
Derby County or West Brom
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins71%
Derby County or draw70%
Draw or West Brom58%
Goal lines
Over 1.572%
Over 2.545%
Over 3.524%
Under: 1.5 29% · 2.5 55% · 3.5 76%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Derby County | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Position | 7th |
| 4 | Points | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 14th |
| 13th | Defence rank | 7th |
| 1511 | Elo | 1506 |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Derby County13 / 30 pts
- W
Portsmouth0–2Derby County - LDerby County0–3Swansea
- DDerby County2–2Cardiff
- L
Charlton2–1Derby County - LDerby County1–2Sheffield Utd
- W
QPR2–3Derby County - L
Norwich2–1Derby County - WDerby County1–0Oxford United FC
- L
Southampton2–1Derby County - WDerby County2–0Stoke
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Derby County a slim edge at 42% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Derby County: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats across the last 10. West Brom bring 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Derby County, while West Brom collected 7/15 away points in that stretch. The last 6 head-to-heads: 4 Derby County wins, 2 draws, 0 for West Brom. Those meetings averaged 1.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 6. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 29%. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 45%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby County vs West Brom?
Our model's most likely outcome is Derby County win, with probabilities of 42% for a Derby County win, 29% for a draw and 30% for an West Brom win.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs West Brom?
The model puts both teams scoring at 51% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Derby County vs West Brom?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Derby County or draw 70%, draw or West Brom 58%, and either side to win 71%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Derby County vs West Brom kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-09 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Derby County vs West Brom being played?
The match is scheduled for iPro Stadium, the home ground of Derby County.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.