Championship · Matchday 4 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth vs Derby County prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Portsmouth win — the match finished Portsmouth 0–2 Derby County.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✓ HitPortsmouth or Derby County
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Portsmouth or draw66%
Draw or Derby County62%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.549%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 51% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 0–2
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Portsmouth | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Position | 17th |
| 3 | Points | 4 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 18th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 22nd | Defence rank | 13th |
| 1466 | Elo | 1511 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Portsmouth17 / 30 pts
- L
Bristol City2–1Portsmouth - W
Lincoln City1–3Portsmouth - LPortsmouth1–3QPR
- DPortsmouth1–1Birmingham
- W
Stoke1–3Portsmouth - L
Coventry City5–1Portsmouth - WPortsmouth1–0Leicester City FC
- WPortsmouth2–0Ipswich Town
- W
Middlesbrough0–1Portsmouth - DPortsmouth2–2Oxford United FC
Derby County10 / 30 pts
- LDerby County0–3Swansea
- DDerby County2–2Cardiff
- L
Charlton2–1Derby County - LDerby County1–2Sheffield Utd
- WQPR2–3Derby County
- L
Norwich2–1Derby County - WDerby County1–0Oxford United FC
- L
Southampton2–1Derby County - WDerby County2–0Stoke
- LCoventry City3–2Derby County
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
A close call: Portsmouth edge it at 38%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Portsmouth arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Derby County it reads 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5; Derby County have taken 3 of 15 points on their travels. The last 4 head-to-heads: 0 Portsmouth wins, 2 draws, 2 for Derby County. The fixture has produced 2.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 4. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 49%.