Championship · Matchday 5 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth vs Cardiff prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Portsmouth or Cardiff
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Portsmouth@ 2.30
Model +4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.30
In line with the market
2 Cardiff@ 2.62
Model −4 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Portsmouth or draw70%
Draw or Cardiff57%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Portsmouth | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Position | 19th |
| 3 | Points | 3 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 18th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 22nd | Defence rank | 23rd |
| 1466 | Elo | 1402 |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Portsmouth16 / 30 pts
- LPortsmouth0–2Derby County
- L
Bristol City2–1Portsmouth - W
Lincoln City1–3Portsmouth - LPortsmouth1–3QPR
- DPortsmouth1–1Birmingham
- W
Stoke1–3Portsmouth - L
Coventry City5–1Portsmouth - WPortsmouth1–0Leicester City FC
- WPortsmouth2–0Ipswich Town
- W
Middlesbrough0–1Portsmouth
Cardiff6 / 30 pts
- LQPR2–1Cardiff
- DCardiff2–2Sheffield Utd
- DDerby County2–2Cardiff
- DCardiff1–1Wrexham
- L
Norwich4–2Cardiff - DCardiff0–0West Brom
- DCardiff1–1Oxford United FC
- LSheffield Utd2–0Cardiff
- LCardiff0–1Stoke
- D
Preston NE2–2Cardiff
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
Portsmouth are narrow favourites at 43% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Portsmouth: 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats across the last 10. Cardiff bring 6 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Portsmouth, while Cardiff collected 2/15 away points in that stretch. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portsmouth vs Cardiff?
Our model's most likely outcome is Portsmouth win, with probabilities of 43% for a Portsmouth win, 27% for a draw and 30% for an Cardiff win.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cardiff?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Portsmouth vs Cardiff?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Portsmouth or draw 70%, draw or Cardiff 57%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Portsmouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Portsmouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is scheduled for Fratton Park, the home ground of Portsmouth.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.