How our call did
Our pre-match call was QPR win — the match finished QPR 2–1 Cardiff.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✓ HitQPR or Cardiff
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
QPR or draw72%
Draw or Cardiff54%
Goal lines
Over 1.577%
Over 2.553%
Over 3.530%
Under: 1.5 23% · 2.5 47% · 3.5 70%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%actual 2–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 QPR | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 19th |
| 10 | Points | 3 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 11th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 21st | Defence rank | 23rd |
| 1492 | Elo | 1402 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
QPR12 / 30 pts
- W
Blackburn1–2QPR - DQPR0–0Bolton
- W
Portsmouth1–3QPR - L
Ipswich Town3–0QPR - LQPR2–3Derby County
- LQPR1–2Swansea
- L
Millwall2–0QPR - DQPR0–0Bristol City
- D
Preston NE1–1QPR - WQPR2–1Watford
Cardiff7 / 30 pts
- DCardiff2–2Sheffield Utd
- DDerby County2–2Cardiff
- DCardiff1–1Wrexham
- L
Norwich4–2Cardiff - DCardiff0–0West Brom
- DCardiff1–1Oxford United FC
- LSheffield Utd2–0Cardiff
- LCardiff0–1Stoke
- DPreston NE2–2Cardiff
- DQPR0–0Cardiff
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
The model gives QPR a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup. Recent form for QPR: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Cardiff bring 7 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 1 home win in 5 for QPR, while Cardiff collected 3/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 4 QPR wins, 2 draws, 2 for Cardiff. Those meetings averaged 1.9 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 56%.