Cardiffvs
Wrexham
Our prediction
Wrexham winLow confidence
| 1 · Cardiff | X · Draw | 2 · Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market (bet365) | 2.45 (39%) | 3.40 (28%) | 2.80 (34%) |
Bookmaker odds with fair implied probabilities (margin removed). Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-08-16. Informational only, not betting advice.
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
53% Over · 47% Under
Both teams to score
58% Yes · 42% No
Team comparison
| Cardiff | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 16th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 21st | Attack rank | 4th |
| 23rd | Defence rank | 21st |
| 1399 | Elo | 1537 |
| 2 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Match analysis
Wrexham are narrow favourites at 38% — this one is far from decided.
Recent form for Cardiff: 2 draws, 3 defeats across the last 5.
Wrexham bring 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Our model's most likely outcome is Wrexham win, with probabilities of 36% for a Cardiff win, 26% for a draw and 38% for an Wrexham win.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
When does Cardiff vs Wrexham kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-17 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.