Derby Countyvs
Cardiff
Our prediction
Derby County winMedium confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
49% Over · 51% Under
Both teams to score
52% Yes · 48% No
Team comparison
| Derby County | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Position | 15th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 21st |
| 9th | Defence rank | 23rd |
| 1518 | Elo | 1399 |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 2 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Derby CountyLLWLW
CardiffLDDLL
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-25Cardiff 2–1 Derby County
- 2024-09-14Derby County 1–0 Cardiff
- 2022-05-07Derby County 0–1 Cardiff
- 2022-03-01Cardiff 1–0 Derby County
Match analysis
Derby County are narrow favourites at 50% — this one is far from decided.
Recent form for Derby County: 2 wins, 3 defeats across the last 5.
Cardiff bring 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 4 head-to-heads: 1 Derby County wins, 0 draws, 3 for Cardiff.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 49%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby County vs Cardiff?
Our model's most likely outcome is Derby County win, with probabilities of 50% for a Derby County win, 26% for a draw and 24% for an Cardiff win.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Cardiff?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
When does Derby County vs Cardiff kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-22 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
