Championship · Matchday 5 · Turf Moor
Burnley vs Bristol City prediction
Best picks
Burnley or draw
Under 3.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Burnley@ 1.83
Model −3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.75
Model +2 vs market
2 Bristol City@ 4.00
Model +1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Burnley or draw76%
Either side wins73%
Draw or Bristol City52%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.547%
Over 3.526%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 53% · 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Burnley | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd | Position | 8th |
| 2 | Points | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 11th |
| 1702 | Elo | 1502 |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Burnley4 / 30 pts
- DBurnley1–1Middlesbrough
- L
Norwich4–1Burnley - L
West Brom3–1Burnley - DBurnley2–2West Ham
- DBurnley1–1Wolverhampton
- L
Arsenal1–0Burnley - DBurnley2–2Aston Villa
- L
Leeds United3–1Burnley - LBurnley0–1Man City
- L
Nottingham4–1Burnley
Bristol City15 / 30 pts
- W
Preston NE1–3Bristol City - WBristol City2–1Portsmouth
- D
Birmingham2–2Bristol City - LBristol City0–2Millwall
- WBristol City2–0Stoke
- LBirmingham2–1Bristol City
- D
Southampton2–2Bristol City - LBristol City2–4Norwich
- D
QPR0–0Bristol City - WBristol City1–0Sheffield Utd
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
Burnley are narrow favourites at 48% — this one is far from decided. Burnley arrive with 4 draws, 6 defeats from their last 10. For Bristol City it reads 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Burnley have won 0 of their last 5; Bristol City have taken 6 of 15 points on their travels. The last 4 head-to-heads: 4 Burnley wins, 0 draws, 0 for Bristol City. The fixture has produced 2.0 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 4. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 47%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our model's most likely outcome is Burnley win, with probabilities of 48% for a Burnley win, 27% for a draw and 24% for an Bristol City win.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
The model puts both teams scoring at 51% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Burnley or draw 76%, draw or Bristol City 52%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Burnley vs Bristol City kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Burnley vs Bristol City being played?
The match is scheduled for Turf Moor, the home ground of Burnley.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.