Championship · Matchday 4 · Turf Moor
Burnley vs Middlesbrough prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Burnley win — the match finished Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✓ HitBurnley or Middlesbrough
✗ MissBTTS: Yes
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Burnley or draw70%
Draw or Middlesbrough58%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 1–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Burnley | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd | Position | 6th |
| 2 | Points | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 3rd |
| 1st | Defence rank | 3rd |
| 1702 | Elo | 1590 |
| 2 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Burnley3 / 30 pts
Middlesbrough15 / 30 pts
- WMiddlesbrough3–1West Brom
- L
Blackburn2–1Middlesbrough - WMiddlesbrough2–1Lincoln City
- D
Wrexham2–2Middlesbrough - WMiddlesbrough5–1Watford
- WMiddlesbrough1–0Sheffield Wednesday FC
- D
Ipswich Town2–2Middlesbrough - LMiddlesbrough0–1Portsmouth
- D
Swansea2–2Middlesbrough - LMiddlesbrough1–2Millwall
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
Burnley are narrow favourites at 42% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Burnley: 3 draws, 7 defeats across the last 10. Middlesbrough bring 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 0 home wins in 5 for Burnley, while Middlesbrough collected 3/12 away points in that stretch. The last 4 head-to-heads: 2 Burnley wins, 2 draws, 0 for Middlesbrough. Those meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 4. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.