Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Cardiff or Stoke
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Cardiff or draw70%
Draw or Stoke58%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 54% · 3.5 75%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Cardiff | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| 19th | Position | 22nd |
| 3 | Points | 3 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 17th | Attack rank | 22nd |
| 23rd | Defence rank | 16th |
| 1402 | Elo | 1407 |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Cardiff6 / 30 pts
- L
QPR2–1Cardiff - DCardiff2–2Sheffield Utd
- D
Derby County2–2Cardiff - DCardiff1–1Wrexham
- L
Norwich4–2Cardiff - DCardiff0–0West Brom
- DCardiff1–1Oxford United FC
- LSheffield Utd2–0Cardiff
- LCardiff0–1Stoke
- D
Preston NE2–2Cardiff
Stoke4 / 30 pts
- WStoke1–0Norwich
- L
Wolverhampton4–1Stoke - L
Southampton3–1Stoke - LStoke1–2Swansea
- L
Bristol City2–0Stoke - LStoke1–3Portsmouth
- LStoke1–3Millwall
- LWrexham2–0Stoke
- DStoke1–1Blackburn
- LDerby County2–0Stoke
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Cardiff a slim edge at 42% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Cardiff: 6 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Stoke bring 1 win, 1 draw, 8 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 0 home wins in 5 for Cardiff, while Stoke collected 0/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 2 Cardiff wins, 5 draws, 1 for Stoke. Those meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both sides scoring in 6 of the 8. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 28%. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 46%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cardiff vs Stoke?
Our model's most likely outcome is Cardiff win, with probabilities of 42% for a Cardiff win, 28% for a draw and 30% for an Stoke win.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Stoke?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Cardiff vs Stoke?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Cardiff or draw 70%, draw or Stoke 58%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Cardiff vs Stoke kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-08 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Cardiff vs Stoke being played?
The match is scheduled for Cardiff City Stadium, the home ground of Cardiff.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.