How our call did
Our pre-match call was Norwich win — the match finished Stoke 1–0 Norwich.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✗ MissStoke or Norwich
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Draw or Norwich66%
Stoke or draw62%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 1–0
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Stoke | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd | Position | 20th |
| 3 | Points | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 22nd | Attack rank | 7th |
| 16th | Defence rank | 15th |
| 1407 | Elo | 1538 |
| 0 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Stoke4 / 30 pts
- L
Wolverhampton4–1Stoke - L
Southampton3–1Stoke - LStoke1–2Swansea
- L
Bristol City2–0Stoke - LStoke1–3Portsmouth
- LStoke1–3Millwall
- L
Wrexham2–0Stoke - DStoke1–1Blackburn
- L
Derby County2–0Stoke - WStoke2–0Sheffield Wednesday FC
Norwich14 / 30 pts
- WNorwich4–1Burnley
- LMillwall3–0Norwich
- LNorwich1–2West Brom
- L
Hull City2–1Norwich - DNorwich1–1Swansea
- WNorwich2–1Derby County
- WBristol City2–4Norwich
- LNorwich0–2Ipswich Town
- WMillwall1–2Norwich
- DNorwich1–1Portsmouth
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
A close call: Norwich edge it at 38%, with plenty of draw risk at 28%. Recent form for Stoke: 1 win, 1 draw, 8 defeats across the last 10. Norwich bring 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 1 home win in 5 for Stoke, while Norwich collected 6/12 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 1 Stoke wins, 3 draws, 4 for Norwich. Those meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both sides scoring in 4 of the 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.