Best picks
Millwall or draw
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Millwall@ 1.95
Model −3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.40
In line with the market
2 Bolton@ 4.10
Model +2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Millwall or draw75%
Either side wins72%
Draw or Bolton54%
Goal lines
Over 1.571%
Over 2.544%
Over 3.523%
Under: 1.5 29% · 2.5 56% · 3.5 77%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Millwall | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Position | 16th |
| 6 | Points | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 15th |
| 2nd | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1589 | Elo | 1488 |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Millwall17 / 30 pts
Bolton4 / 12 pts
- L
Sheffield Utd3–2Bolton - LBolton0–1Lincoln City
- D
QPR0–0Bolton - WBolton2–1Preston NE
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Millwall a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Millwall: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats across the last 10. Bolton bring 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 4 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Millwall, while Bolton collected 1/6 away points in that stretch. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 28%. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 44%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Millwall vs Bolton?
Our model's most likely outcome is Millwall win, with probabilities of 46% for a Millwall win, 28% for a draw and 25% for an Bolton win.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Bolton?
The model puts both teams scoring at 49% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Millwall vs Bolton?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Millwall or draw 75%, draw or Bolton 54%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Millwall vs Bolton kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Millwall vs Bolton being played?
The match is scheduled for The Den, the home ground of Millwall.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.