Southamptonvs
Stoke
Our prediction
Southampton winHigh confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
54% Over · 46% Under
Both teams to score
54% Yes · 46% No
Team comparison
| Southampton | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd | Position | 20th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 1st | Attack rank | 22nd |
| 8th | Defence rank | 17th |
| 1634 | Elo | 1409 |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 0 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
SouthamptonLWDDW
StokeLLLLL
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31Stoke 0–2 Southampton
- 2025-08-23Southampton 1–2 Stoke
- 2024-04-27Southampton 0–1 Stoke
- 2023-10-03Stoke 0–1 Southampton
Match analysis
Southampton go in as the model's favourite with a 58% win probability.
Recent form for Southampton: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat across the last 5.
Stoke bring 5 defeats from their last 5 on the road to this one.
The last 4 head-to-heads: 2 Southampton wins, 0 draws, 2 for Stoke.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Southampton vs Stoke?
Our model's most likely outcome is Southampton win, with probabilities of 58% for a Southampton win, 23% for a draw and 19% for an Stoke win.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Stoke?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
When does Southampton vs Stoke kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-22 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
