Best picks
Stoke or Charlton
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Stoke@ 2.15
Model −6 vs market
X Draw@ 3.25
Model +1 vs market
2 Charlton@ 3.55
Model +5 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins69%
Stoke or draw69%
Draw or Charlton62%
Goal lines
Over 1.566%
Over 2.538%
Over 3.519%
Under: 1.5 34% · 2.5 62% · 3.5 82%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Stoke | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd | Position | 3rd |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 22nd | Attack rank | 23rd |
| 16th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1407 | Elo | 1480 |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Stoke4 / 30 pts
- WStoke1–0Norwich
- L
Wolverhampton4–1Stoke - L
Southampton3–1Stoke - LStoke1–2Swansea
- L
Bristol City2–0Stoke - LStoke1–3Portsmouth
- LStoke1–3Millwall
- L
Wrexham2–0Stoke - DStoke1–1Blackburn
- L
Derby County2–0Stoke
Charlton15 / 30 pts
- D
West Brom1–1Charlton - WCharlton1–0Preston NE
- W
West Ham1–2Charlton - WCharlton2–1Derby County
- LSwansea3–1Charlton
- WCharlton2–1Hull City
- LCharlton1–2Ipswich Town
- D
Sheffield Wednesday FC1–1Charlton - LCharlton1–2Preston NE
- D
Watford1–1Charlton
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Stoke edge it at 38%, with plenty of draw risk at 31%. Recent form for Stoke: 1 win, 1 draw, 8 defeats across the last 10. Charlton bring 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 1 home win in 5 for Stoke, while Charlton collected 6/15 away points in that stretch. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 31%. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 38%. Our 38% on Stoke sits below the market's implied 44% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stoke vs Charlton?
Our model's most likely outcome is Stoke win, with probabilities of 38% for a Stoke win, 31% for a draw and 31% for an Charlton win.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Charlton?
The model puts both teams scoring at 46% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Stoke vs Charlton?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Stoke or draw 69%, draw or Charlton 62%, and either side to win 69%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Stoke vs Charlton kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 11:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Stoke vs Charlton being played?
The match is scheduled for Bet365 Stadium, the home ground of Stoke.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.