Derby Countyvs
Swansea
Our prediction
Derby County winLow confidence
Model dc-0.1.0 · predicted 2026-08-16
Goals markets
Over / Under 2.5
47% Over · 53% Under
Both teams to score
52% Yes · 48% No
Team comparison
| Derby County | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Position | 6th |
| 0 | Points | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 14th |
| 9th | Defence rank | 11th |
| 1518 | Elo | 1532 |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come fromour model ratings.
Recent form
Derby CountyLLWLW
SwanseaWWDWL
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14Derby County 2–0 Swansea
- 2025-11-25Swansea 1–2 Derby County
- 2025-04-05Swansea 1–0 Derby County
- 2024-11-27Derby County 1–2 Swansea
- 2022-04-09Swansea 2–1 Derby County
Match analysis
Derby County are narrow favourites at 44% — this one is far from decided.
Derby County arrive with 2 wins, 3 defeats from their last 5.
For Swansea it reads 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat over the last 5.
The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Derby County wins, 0 draws, 3 for Swansea.
The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 47%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby County vs Swansea?
Our model's most likely outcome is Derby County win, with probabilities of 44% for a Derby County win, 27% for a draw and 29% for an Swansea win.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Swansea?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
When does Derby County vs Swansea kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-08-29 · 11:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.
