Championship · Matchday 4 · St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium
Birmingham vs Southampton prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Southampton win — the match finished Birmingham 1–1 Southampton.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✓ HitBirmingham or Southampton
✗ MissBTTS: Yes
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or Southampton68%
Birmingham or draw59%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%actual 1–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Birmingham | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Position | 4th |
| 6 | Points | 7 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 2.5 |
| 16th | Attack rank | 1st |
| 6th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1508 | Elo | 1652 |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Birmingham16 / 30 pts
- W
Wrexham1–2Birmingham - DBirmingham2–2Bristol City
- D
Sheffield Utd0–0Birmingham - D
Portsmouth1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–1Bristol City
- WBirmingham2–1Preston NE
- D
Hull City1–1Birmingham - WBirmingham2–0Wrexham
- L
Ipswich Town2–1Birmingham - LBirmingham0–1Blackburn
Southampton23 / 30 pts
- WSouthampton5–1Millwall
- WSouthampton3–1Stoke
- L
Watford2–1Southampton - WPreston NE1–3Southampton
- DSouthampton2–2Ipswich Town
- DSouthampton2–2Bristol City
- W
Swansea1–2Southampton - WSouthampton3–0Blackburn
- WSouthampton2–1Derby County
- WWrexham1–5Southampton
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
Southampton are narrow favourites at 41% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Birmingham: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Southampton bring 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Birmingham, while Southampton collected 9/12 away points in that stretch. The last 4 head-to-heads: 0 Birmingham wins, 1 draws, 3 for Southampton. Those meetings averaged 4.3 goals, with both sides scoring in 4 of the 4. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 58%.