Championship · Matchday 5 · London Stadium
West Ham vs Derby County prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
West Ham or Derby County
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 West Ham@ 1.38
Model −24 vs market
X Draw@ 5.00
Model +7 vs market
2 Derby County@ 7.50
Model +17 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
West Ham or draw70%
Draw or Derby County56%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 West Ham | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Position | 17th |
| 5 | Points | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 5th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 19th | Defence rank | 13th |
| 1508 | Elo | 1511 |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
West Ham12 / 30 pts
Derby County13 / 30 pts
- W
Portsmouth0–2Derby County - LDerby County0–3Swansea
- DDerby County2–2Cardiff
- L
Charlton2–1Derby County - LDerby County1–2Sheffield Utd
- W
QPR2–3Derby County - L
Norwich2–1Derby County - WDerby County1–0Oxford United FC
- L
Southampton2–1Derby County - WDerby County2–0Stoke
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: West Ham edge it at 44%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%. Recent form for West Ham: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Derby County bring 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for West Ham, while Derby County collected 6/15 away points in that stretch. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 58%. Our 44% on West Ham sits below the market's implied 68% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win West Ham vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely outcome is West Ham win, with probabilities of 44% for a West Ham win, 26% for a draw and 30% for an Derby County win.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Derby County?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for West Ham vs Derby County?
Derived from the same model probabilities: West Ham or draw 70%, draw or Derby County 56%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does West Ham vs Derby County kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is West Ham vs Derby County being played?
The match is scheduled for London Stadium, the home ground of West Ham.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.