Best picks
West Brom or draw
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 West Brom@ 1.88
Model −4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.60
Model +2 vs market
2 Watford@ 4.10
Model +2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
West Brom or draw75%
Either side wins72%
Draw or Watford54%
Goal lines
Over 1.570%
Over 2.543%
Over 3.522%
Under: 1.5 30% · 2.5 57% · 3.5 78%
Both teams to score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 West Brom | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 15th |
| 7 | Points | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 21st |
| 7th | Defence rank | 18th |
| 1506 | Elo | 1436 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
West Brom16 / 30 pts
Watford6 / 30 pts
- L
Swansea2–0Watford - DWatford1–1West Ham
- D
Wrexham1–1Watford - WWatford2–1Southampton
- LWatford0–4Coventry City
- L
Middlesbrough5–1Watford - LWest Brom3–0Watford
- LWatford0–2Sheffield Utd
- L
Oxford United FC2–0Watford - DWatford1–1Charlton
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives West Brom a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup. West Brom arrive with 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For Watford it reads 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home West Brom have won 2 of their last 5; Watford have taken 1 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 2 West Brom wins, 3 draws, 3 for Watford. The fixture has produced 3.4 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 7 of the last 8. The draw is live here at 28% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win West Brom vs Watford?
Our model's most likely outcome is West Brom win, with probabilities of 46% for a West Brom win, 28% for a draw and 25% for an Watford win.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Watford?
The model puts both teams scoring at 48% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for West Brom vs Watford?
Derived from the same model probabilities: West Brom or draw 75%, draw or Watford 54%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does West Brom vs Watford kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is West Brom vs Watford being played?
The match is scheduled for The Hawthorns, the home ground of West Brom.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.