How our call did
Our pre-match call was Swansea win — the match finished Swansea 2–0 Watford.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Under 3.5 goals
✓ HitSwansea or draw
✓ HitBTTS: No
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Swansea or draw75%
Either side wins72%
Draw or Watford53%
Goal lines
Over 1.572%
Over 2.545%
Over 3.524%
Under: 1.5 28% · 2.5 55% · 3.5 76%
Both teams to score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 2–0
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Swansea | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 15th |
| 10 | Points | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 13th | Attack rank | 21st |
| 5th | Defence rank | 18th |
| 1558 | Elo | 1436 |
| 11 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Swansea19 / 30 pts
- W
Derby County0–3Swansea - DSwansea0–0Sheffield Utd
- W
Stoke1–2Swansea - WSwansea3–1Charlton
- D
Norwich1–1Swansea - W
QPR1–2Swansea - LSwansea1–2Southampton
- W
Leicester City FC0–1Swansea - DSwansea2–2Middlesbrough
- DSheffield Utd3–3Swansea
Watford6 / 30 pts
- DWatford1–1West Ham
- D
Wrexham1–1Watford - WWatford2–1Southampton
- LWatford0–4Coventry City
- LMiddlesbrough5–1Watford
- L
West Brom3–0Watford - LWatford0–2Sheffield Utd
- L
Oxford United FC2–0Watford - DWatford1–1Charlton
- LQPR2–1Watford
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Pre-match model verdict
The model gives Swansea a slim edge at 47% in a tight matchup. Swansea arrive with 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For Watford it reads 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Swansea have won 1 of their last 4; Watford have taken 1 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 4 Swansea wins, 2 draws, 2 for Watford. The fixture has produced 2.0 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 8. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 45%.