Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Wrexham or Burnley
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Wrexham or draw65%
Draw or Burnley62%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Wrexham | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 23rd |
| 5 | Points | 2 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 17th | Defence rank | 1st |
| 1543 | Elo | 1702 |
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Wrexham12 / 30 pts
- W
Millwall0–3Wrexham - LWrexham1–2Birmingham
- DWrexham1–1Watford
- D
Cardiff1–1Wrexham - DWrexham2–2Middlesbrough
- L
Coventry City3–1Wrexham - W
Oxford United FC0–1Wrexham - WWrexham2–0Stoke
- LBirmingham2–0Wrexham
- LWrexham1–5Southampton
Burnley4 / 30 pts
- DBurnley1–1Middlesbrough
- L
Norwich4–1Burnley - L
West Brom3–1Burnley - DBurnley2–2West Ham
- DBurnley1–1Wolverhampton
- L
Arsenal1–0Burnley - DBurnley2–2Aston Villa
- L
Leeds United3–1Burnley - LBurnley0–1Man City
- L
Nottingham4–1Burnley
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 |  Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Wrexham a slim edge at 38% in a tight matchup. Wrexham arrive with 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Burnley it reads 4 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5; Burnley have taken 0 of 15 points on their travels. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 56%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Wrexham vs Burnley?
Our model's most likely outcome is Wrexham win, with probabilities of 38% for a Wrexham win, 27% for a draw and 35% for an Burnley win.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Burnley?
The model puts both teams scoring at 56% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Wrexham vs Burnley?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Wrexham or draw 65%, draw or Burnley 62%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Wrexham vs Burnley kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-08 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Wrexham vs Burnley being played?
The match is scheduled for Racecourse Ground, the home ground of Wrexham.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.