Championship · Matchday 6 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton vs Swansea prediction
Best picks
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Southampton win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Southampton or draw77%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Swansea47%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 43% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely score
1–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Southampton | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 1st |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 2.5 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 1st | Attack rank | 13th |
| 10th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1652 | Elo | 1558 |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 13 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 4
Recent form · last 10
Southampton21 / 30 pts
- D
Birmingham1–1Southampton - WSouthampton5–1Millwall
- WSouthampton3–1Stoke
- L
Watford2–1Southampton - W
Preston NE1–3Southampton - DSouthampton2–2Ipswich Town
- DSouthampton2–2Bristol City
- WSwansea1–2Southampton
- WSouthampton3–0Blackburn
- WSouthampton2–1Derby County
Swansea21 / 30 pts
- WSwansea2–0Watford
- WDerby County0–3Swansea
- DSwansea0–0Sheffield Utd
- WStoke1–2Swansea
- WSwansea3–1Charlton
- D
Norwich1–1Swansea - W
QPR1–2Swansea - LSwansea1–2Southampton
- W
Leicester City FC0–1Swansea - DSwansea2–2Middlesbrough
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 |  Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Southampton: 53% on the win. Recent form for Southampton: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat across the last 10. Swansea bring 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 4 home wins in 6 for Southampton, while Swansea collected 13/15 away points in that stretch. The last 4 head-to-heads: 3 Southampton wins, 1 draws, 0 for Swansea. Those meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with both sides scoring in 2 of the 4. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 57%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 57%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?
Our model's most likely outcome is Southampton win, with probabilities of 53% for a Southampton win, 24% for a draw and 23% for an Swansea win.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Swansea?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Southampton vs Swansea?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Southampton or draw 77%, draw or Swansea 47%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Southampton vs Swansea kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-08 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Southampton vs Swansea being played?
The match is scheduled for St. Mary's Stadium, the home ground of Southampton.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.