Championship · Matchday 5 · Sincil Bank Stadium
Lincoln City vs Southampton prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Lincoln City or Southampton
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Lincoln City@ 4.00
Model +7 vs market
X Draw@ 3.80
Model +2 vs market
2 Southampton@ 1.80
Model −8 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Draw or Southampton70%
Lincoln City or draw56%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Lincoln City | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Position | 4th |
| 4 | Points | 7 |
| 0.8 | Goals / game | 2.5 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 1st |
| 12th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1486 | Elo | 1652 |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 10 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Lincoln City4 / 12 pts
- DLincoln City0–0Blackburn
- W
Bolton0–1Lincoln City - LLincoln City1–3Portsmouth
- L
Middlesbrough2–1Lincoln City
Southampton21 / 30 pts
- D
Birmingham1–1Southampton - WSouthampton5–1Millwall
- WSouthampton3–1Stoke
- L
Watford2–1Southampton - W
Preston NE1–3Southampton - DSouthampton2–2Ipswich Town
- DSouthampton2–2Bristol City
- W
Swansea1–2Southampton - WSouthampton3–0Blackburn
- WSouthampton2–1Derby County
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
Southampton are narrow favourites at 44% — this one is far from decided. Lincoln City arrive with 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats from their last 4. For Southampton it reads 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Lincoln City have won 0 of their last 2; Southampton have taken 7 of 12 points on their travels. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 58%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 52% for Southampton against our 44% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lincoln City vs Southampton?
Our model's most likely outcome is Southampton win, with probabilities of 30% for a Lincoln City win, 26% for a draw and 44% for an Southampton win.
Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Southampton?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Lincoln City vs Southampton?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Lincoln City or draw 56%, draw or Southampton 70%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Lincoln City vs Southampton kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 11:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Lincoln City vs Southampton being played?
The match is scheduled for Sincil Bank Stadium, the home ground of Lincoln City.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.