Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Santos or Cruzeiro
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Santos or draw68%
Draw or Cruzeiro60%
Goal lines
Over 1.573%
Over 2.547%
Over 3.525%
Under: 1.5 27% · 2.5 53% · 3.5 75%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Santos | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Position | 6th |
| 29 | Points | 39 |
| 1.4 | Goals / game | 1.4 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 7th |
| 17th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1509 | Elo | 1604 |
| €103m | Squad value | €175m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 12 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 5
Recent form · last 10
Santos14 / 30 pts
- W
Corinthians0–1Santos - DSantos1–1Mirassol
- W
Vasco da Gama0–3Santos - LSantos0–2Paranaense
- DSantos2–2Chapecoense
- L
Botafogo2–1Santos - WSantos3–1Vitória
- L
Grêmio3–2Santos - LSantos0–3Coritiba
- WSantos2–0Bragantino
Cruzeiro20 / 30 pts
- LVasco da Gama3–1Cruzeiro
- WCruzeiro2–1Flamengo
- WCorinthians1–2Cruzeiro
- WCruzeiro3–1Mirassol
- WCoritiba0–1Cruzeiro
- LCruzeiro0–1Botafogo
- W
Internacional1–2Cruzeiro - DCruzeiro1–1Fluminense
- WCruzeiro2–1Chapecoense
- D
Palmeiras1–1Cruzeiro
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 |  São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The model gives Santos a slim edge at 40% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Santos: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Cruzeiro bring 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 6 for Santos, while Cruzeiro collected 10/15 away points in that stretch. The last 5 head-to-heads: 2 Santos wins, 1 draws, 2 for Cruzeiro. Those meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both sides scoring in 2 of the 5. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 47%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Our model's most likely outcome is Santos win, with probabilities of 40% for a Santos win, 28% for a draw and 32% for an Cruzeiro win.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Santos or draw 68%, draw or Cruzeiro 60%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Santos vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-13 · 00:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Santos vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Urbano Caldeira, the home ground of Santos.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.