Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 27 · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Flamengo vs Corinthians prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Flamengo win
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Flamengo or draw86%
Either side wins78%
Draw or Corinthians37%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
1–0at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Flamengo | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 10th |
| 51 | Points | 32 |
| 2.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 1st | Attack rank | 18th |
| 1st | Defence rank | 4th |
| 1731 | Elo | 1537 |
| €186m | Squad value | €146m |
| 12 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Flamengo20 / 30 pts
Corinthians14 / 30 pts
- LCorinthians0–1Santos
- L
Coritiba2–1Corinthians - LCorinthians1–2Cruzeiro
- W
Bragantino0–2Corinthians - DCorinthians0–0Paranaense
- D
Bahia1–1Corinthians - WCorinthians3–0Clube do Remo
- W
Grêmio1–3Corinthians - WCorinthians1–0Mineiro
- L
Botafogo3–1Corinthians
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 |  São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 |  Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Flamengo go in as the model's favourite with a 63% win probability. Recent form for Flamengo: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Corinthians bring 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 4 home wins in 6 for Flamengo, while Corinthians collected 7/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 5 Flamengo wins, 2 draws, 3 for Corinthians. Those meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both sides scoring in 5 of the 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our model's most likely outcome is Flamengo win, with probabilities of 63% for a Flamengo win, 22% for a draw and 14% for an Corinthians win.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
The model puts both teams scoring at 46% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Flamengo or draw 86%, draw or Corinthians 37%, and either side to win 78%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Flamengo vs Corinthians kick off?
Flamengo vs Corinthians is scheduled for Sat 12 Sept; the exact kick-off time has not been confirmed yet.
Where is Flamengo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, the home ground of Flamengo.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.