Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 26 · Neo Química Arena
Corinthians vs Chapecoense prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Corinthians win
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Corinthians@ 1.36
Model −7 vs market
X Draw@ 4.33
Model +2 vs market
2 Chapecoense@ 8.00
Model +5 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Corinthians or draw83%
Either side wins77%
Draw or Chapecoense40%
Goal lines
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 24% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–0at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Corinthians | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Position | 20th |
| 32 | Points | 14 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 18th | Attack rank | 19th |
| 4th | Defence rank | 20th |
| 1537 | Elo | 1304 |
| €146m | Squad value | €19m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 3
Recent form · last 10
Corinthians14 / 30 pts
- LCorinthians0–1Santos
- L
Coritiba2–1Corinthians - LCorinthians1–2Cruzeiro
- W
Bragantino0–2Corinthians - DCorinthians0–0Paranaense
- D
Bahia1–1Corinthians - WCorinthians3–0Clube do Remo
- W
Grêmio1–3Corinthians - WCorinthians1–0Mineiro
- L
Botafogo3–1Corinthians
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 |  São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 |  Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Corinthians clear favourites at 60%. Recent form for Corinthians: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Chapecoense bring 1 win, 2 draws, 7 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Corinthians, while Chapecoense collected 1/18 away points in that stretch. The last 3 head-to-heads: 2 Corinthians wins, 1 draws, 0 for Chapecoense. Those meetings averaged 0.7 goals, with both sides scoring in 0 of the 3. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%. Our 60% on Corinthians sits below the market's implied 67% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Our model's most likely outcome is Corinthians win, with probabilities of 60% for a Corinthians win, 23% for a draw and 17% for an Chapecoense win.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
The model puts both teams scoring at 49% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Corinthians or draw 83%, draw or Chapecoense 40%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Corinthians vs Chapecoense kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 22:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Corinthians vs Chapecoense being played?
The match is scheduled for Neo Química Arena, the home ground of Corinthians.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.