Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 24 · Arena Condá
Chapecoense vs São Paulo prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was São Paulo win — the match finished Chapecoense 1–0 São Paulo.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Chapecoense or São Paulo
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✗ MissOver 2.5 goals
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Draw or São Paulo66%
Chapecoense or draw61%
Goal lines
Over 2.550%
Under: 2.5 50%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 1–0
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Chapecoense | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Position | 11th |
| 14 | Points | 30 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.2 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 16th |
| 20th | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1304 | Elo | 1514 |
| €19m | Squad value | €81m |
| 2 | Form pts (last 5) | 2 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 3
Recent form · last 10
Chapecoense3 / 30 pts
- DChapecoense3–3Bahia
- L
Coritiba2–1Chapecoense - D
Santos2–2Chapecoense - LChapecoense0–4Flamengo
- LBahia2–0Chapecoense
- L
Palmeiras1–0Chapecoense - L
Cruzeiro2–1Chapecoense - LChapecoense2–3Clube do Remo
- D
Mirassol1–1Chapecoense - LChapecoense1–2Bragantino
São Paulo7 / 30 pts
- DSão Paulo1–1Coritiba
- L
Grêmio2–1São Paulo - DFlamengo1–1São Paulo
- LSão Paulo1–2Paranaense
- LClube do Remo1–0São Paulo
- DSão Paulo1–1Botafogo
- L
Fluminense2–1São Paulo - L
Corinthians3–2São Paulo - DSão Paulo2–2Bahia
- WSão Paulo1–0Mirassol
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Pre-match model verdict
São Paulo are narrow favourites at 39% — this one is far from decided. Chapecoense arrive with 3 draws, 7 defeats from their last 10. For São Paulo it reads 1 win, 4 draws, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home Chapecoense have won 0 of their last 4; São Paulo have taken 1 of 15 points on their travels. The last 3 head-to-heads: 0 Chapecoense wins, 2 draws, 1 for São Paulo. The fixture has produced 2.0 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 3. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%.