How our call did
Our pre-match call was Santos win — the match finished Santos 1–1 Mirassol.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Santos or Mirassol
✗ MissBTTS: Yes
✓ HitOver 2.5 goals
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Santos or draw71%
Draw or Mirassol55%
Goal lines
Over 2.553%
Under: 2.5 47%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%actual 1–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Santos | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 13th | Position | 17th |
| 29 | Points | 25 |
| 1.4 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 9th | Attack rank | 8th |
| 17th | Defence rank | 13th |
| 1509 | Elo | 1528 |
| €103m | Squad value | €34m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 3
Recent form · last 10
Santos12 / 30 pts
- W
Vasco da Gama0–3Santos - LSantos0–2Paranaense
- DSantos2–2Chapecoense
- L
Botafogo2–1Santos - WSantos3–1Vitória
- L
Grêmio3–2Santos - LSantos0–3Coritiba
- WSantos2–0Bragantino
- D
Palmeiras1–1Santos - D
Bahia2–2Santos
Mirassol14 / 30 pts
- LMirassol1–5Flamengo
- L
Cruzeiro3–1Mirassol - WMirassol2–1Clube do Remo
- DVasco da Gama1–1Mirassol
- WMirassol2–1Grêmio
- LParanaense1–0Mirassol
- WMirassol1–0Fluminense
- L
Mineiro3–1Mirassol - DMirassol1–1Chapecoense
- WMirassol2–1Corinthians
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 |  São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Pre-match model verdict
The model gives Santos a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Santos: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Mirassol bring 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Santos, while Mirassol collected 1/12 away points in that stretch. The last 3 head-to-heads: 0 Santos wins, 2 draws, 1 for Mirassol. Those meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with both sides scoring in 2 of the 3. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 56%.