Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Botafogo or Palmeiras
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Botafogo@ 3.25
Model +7 vs market
X Draw@ 3.35
Model −1 vs market
2 Palmeiras@ 2.15
Model −6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Draw or Palmeiras64%
Botafogo or draw63%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 50% · 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Botafogo | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 1st |
| 30 | Points | 52 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 2nd |
| 11th | Defence rank | 2nd |
| 1579 | Elo | 1723 |
| €125m | Squad value | €240m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 9
Recent form · last 10
Botafogo12 / 30 pts
- L
Flamengo3–0Botafogo - LBotafogo2–3Paranaense
- L
Vitória1–0Botafogo - DBotafogo1–1Fluminense
- W
Cruzeiro0–1Botafogo - DBotafogo0–0Vitória
- WBotafogo2–1Santos
- L
Bahia2–1Botafogo - D
São Paulo1–1Botafogo - WBotafogo3–1Corinthians
Palmeiras18 / 30 pts
- D
Mirassol1–1Palmeiras - WPalmeiras4–1Vasco da Gama
- LFluminense3–2Palmeiras
- DPalmeiras0–0Internacional
- WVitória0–4Palmeiras
- LPalmeiras1–2Mineiro
- W
Coritiba1–3Palmeiras - WPalmeiras1–0Chapecoense
- WFlamengo0–3Palmeiras
- DPalmeiras1–1Cruzeiro
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 |  Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 |  Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
A close call: Palmeiras edge it at 37%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Botafogo arrive with 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Palmeiras it reads 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats over the last 10. At home Botafogo have won 2 of their last 5; Palmeiras have taken 10 of 15 points on their travels. The last 9 head-to-heads: 3 Botafogo wins, 1 draws, 5 for Palmeiras. The fixture has produced 2.8 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 9. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 50%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 55%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 43% for Palmeiras against our 37% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our model's most likely outcome is Palmeiras win, with probabilities of 36% for a Botafogo win, 27% for a draw and 37% for an Palmeiras win.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Botafogo or draw 63%, draw or Palmeiras 64%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Botafogo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 21:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Botafogo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Nilton Santos, the home ground of Botafogo.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.