Best picks
Vitória or Grêmio
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins71%
Vitória or draw69%
Draw or Grêmio60%
Goal lines
Over 1.569%
Over 2.542%
Over 3.521%
Under: 1.5 31% · 2.5 58% · 3.5 79%
Both teams to score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Vitória | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Position | 15th |
| 29 | Points | 28 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 20th | Attack rank | 14th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1481 | Elo | 1501 |
| €46m | Squad value | €102m |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 5
Recent form · last 10
Vitória10 / 30 pts
- L
Mineiro2–1Vitória - LVitória0–2Bahia
- WVitória1–0Botafogo
- L
Flamengo2–0Vitória - LVitória0–4Palmeiras
- L
Clube do Remo2–0Vitória - DBotafogo0–0Vitória
- WVitória1–0Vasco da Gama
- L
Santos3–1Vitória - WVitória2–0Internacional
Grêmio11 / 30 pts
- WGrêmio3–1Chapecoense
- L
Bragantino1–0Grêmio - LMineiro3–0Grêmio
- WGrêmio2–1São Paulo
- DGrêmio1–1Fluminense
- L
Mirassol2–1Grêmio - LGrêmio1–3Corinthians
- WGrêmio3–2Santos
- DBahia1–1Grêmio
- LGrêmio0–1Flamengo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 |  Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The model gives Vitória a slim edge at 40% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Vitória: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats across the last 10. Grêmio bring 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Vitória, while Grêmio collected 1/12 away points in that stretch. The last 5 head-to-heads: 0 Vitória wins, 2 draws, 3 for Grêmio. Those meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both sides scoring in 3 of the 5. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 29%. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 42%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vitória vs Grêmio?
Our model's most likely outcome is Vitória win, with probabilities of 40% for a Vitória win, 29% for a draw and 31% for an Grêmio win.
Will both teams score in Vitória vs Grêmio?
The model puts both teams scoring at 48% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Vitória vs Grêmio?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Vitória or draw 69%, draw or Grêmio 60%, and either side to win 71%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Vitória vs Grêmio kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-07 · 23:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Vitória vs Grêmio being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Manoel Barradas, the home ground of Vitória.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.