Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 25 · Arena do Grêmio
Grêmio vs Chapecoense prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Grêmio win — the match finished Grêmio 3–1 Chapecoense.✓ Hit
Pre-match picks, graded
Over 1.5 goals
✓ HitGrêmio win
✓ HitBTTS: Yes
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Grêmio or draw81%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Chapecoense43%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 11%actual 3–1
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Grêmio | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 20th |
| 28 | Points | 14 |
| 1.1 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 19th |
| 14th | Defence rank | 20th |
| 1501 | Elo | 1304 |
| €102m | Squad value | €19m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 3
Recent form · last 10
Grêmio9 / 30 pts
- L
Bragantino1–0Grêmio - L
Mineiro3–0Grêmio - WGrêmio2–1São Paulo
- DGrêmio1–1Fluminense
- L
Mirassol2–1Grêmio - LGrêmio1–3Corinthians
- WGrêmio3–2Santos
- D
Bahia1–1Grêmio - LGrêmio0–1Flamengo
- D
Paranaense0–0Grêmio
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Pre-match model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Grêmio: 57% on the win. Grêmio arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Chapecoense it reads 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Grêmio have won 2 of their last 5; Chapecoense have taken 2 of 18 points on their travels. The last 3 head-to-heads: 2 Grêmio wins, 1 draws, 0 for Chapecoense. The fixture has produced 3.0 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 3. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%.