How our call did
Our pre-match call was Vitória win — the match finished Vitória 0–2 Bahia.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Vitória or Bahia
✓ HitUnder 2.5 goals
✓ HitBTTS: No
✓ HitEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins71%
Vitória or draw67%
Draw or Bahia62%
Goal lines
Over 2.543%
Under: 2.5 57%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%actual 0–2
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Vitória | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Position | 5th |
| 29 | Points | 40 |
| 1.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 20th | Attack rank | 5th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 10th |
| 1481 | Elo | 1569 |
| €46m | Squad value | €123m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 5
Recent form · last 10
Vitória11 / 30 pts
- WVitória1–0Botafogo
- L
Flamengo2–0Vitória - LVitória0–4Palmeiras
- L
Clube do Remo2–0Vitória - DBotafogo0–0Vitória
- WVitória1–0Vasco da Gama
- L
Santos3–1Vitória - WVitória2–0Internacional
- L
Bragantino2–0Vitória - D
Fluminense2–2Vitória
Bahia12 / 30 pts
- D
Chapecoense3–3Bahia - DBahia0–0Vasco da Gama
- DFluminense0–0Bahia
- DBahia1–1Corinthians
- D
Mineiro1–1Bahia - WBahia2–0Chapecoense
- WBahia2–1Botafogo
- L
Coritiba3–2Bahia - DBahia1–1Grêmio
- LBahia1–2Cruzeiro
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 |  Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 |  São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 |  Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Pre-match model verdict
A close call: Vitória edge it at 38%, with plenty of draw risk at 29%. Recent form for Vitória: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats across the last 10. Bahia bring 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 4 for Vitória, while Bahia collected 3/12 away points in that stretch. The last 5 head-to-heads: 1 Vitória wins, 2 draws, 2 for Bahia. Those meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 4 of the 5. Worth noting the stalemate risk: the model has the draw at 29%. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%.