Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Botafogo win
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Botafogo or draw79%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Grêmio46%
Goal lines
Over 1.577%
Over 2.552%
Over 3.530%
Under: 1.5 23% · 2.5 48% · 3.5 70%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Botafogo | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Position | 15th |
| 30 | Points | 28 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 3rd | Attack rank | 14th |
| 11th | Defence rank | 14th |
| 1579 | Elo | 1501 |
| €125m | Squad value | €102m |
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 7
Recent form · last 10
Botafogo12 / 30 pts
- L
Flamengo3–0Botafogo - LBotafogo2–3Paranaense
- L
Vitória1–0Botafogo - DBotafogo1–1Fluminense
- W
Cruzeiro0–1Botafogo - DBotafogo0–0Vitória
- WBotafogo2–1Santos
- L
Bahia2–1Botafogo - D
São Paulo1–1Botafogo - WBotafogo3–1Corinthians
Grêmio11 / 30 pts
- WGrêmio3–1Chapecoense
- L
Bragantino1–0Grêmio - L
Mineiro3–0Grêmio - WGrêmio2–1São Paulo
- DGrêmio1–1Fluminense
- L
Mirassol2–1Grêmio - LGrêmio1–3Corinthians
- WGrêmio3–2Santos
- DBahia1–1Grêmio
- LGrêmio0–1Flamengo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 |  Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Botafogo go in as the model's favourite with a 54% win probability. Recent form for Botafogo: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Grêmio bring 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Botafogo, while Grêmio collected 1/12 away points in that stretch. The last 7 head-to-heads: 3 Botafogo wins, 2 draws, 2 for Grêmio. Those meetings averaged 3.9 goals, with both sides scoring in 5 of the 7. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 52%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Grêmio?
Our model's most likely outcome is Botafogo win, with probabilities of 54% for a Botafogo win, 24% for a draw and 21% for an Grêmio win.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Grêmio?
The model puts both teams scoring at 53% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Botafogo or draw 79%, draw or Grêmio 46%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Botafogo vs Grêmio kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-16 · 22:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Botafogo vs Grêmio being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Nilton Santos, the home ground of Botafogo.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.