Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 27 · Arena do Grêmio
Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Grêmio win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Grêmio or draw76%
Either side wins75%
Draw or Vasco da Gama49%
Goal lines
Over 1.577%
Over 2.552%
Over 3.530%
Under: 1.5 23% · 2.5 48% · 3.5 70%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Grêmio | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Position | 18th |
| 28 | Points | 25 |
| 1.1 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 14th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 14th | Defence rank | 18th |
| 1501 | Elo | 1462 |
| €102m | Squad value | €105m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 7
Recent form · last 10
Grêmio11 / 30 pts
- WGrêmio3–1Chapecoense
- L
Bragantino1–0Grêmio - L
Mineiro3–0Grêmio - WGrêmio2–1São Paulo
- DGrêmio1–1Fluminense
- L
Mirassol2–1Grêmio - LGrêmio1–3Corinthians
- WGrêmio3–2Santos
- D
Bahia1–1Grêmio - LGrêmio0–1Flamengo
Vasco da Gama8 / 30 pts
- WVasco da Gama3–1Cruzeiro
- L
Palmeiras4–1Vasco da Gama - LVasco da Gama0–3Santos
- DBahia0–0Vasco da Gama
- DVasco da Gama1–1Mirassol
- L
Vitória1–0Vasco da Gama - LVasco da Gama0–1Mineiro
- LVasco da Gama0–3Bragantino
- L
Internacional4–1Vasco da Gama - WVasco da Gama1–0Paranaense
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Grêmio: 51% on the win. Grêmio arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Vasco da Gama it reads 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Grêmio have won 3 of their last 6; Vasco da Gama have taken 1 of 12 points on their travels. The last 7 head-to-heads: 3 Grêmio wins, 1 draws, 3 for Vasco da Gama. The fixture has produced 1.9 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 7. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 52%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?
Our model's most likely outcome is Grêmio win, with probabilities of 51% for a Grêmio win, 25% for a draw and 24% for an Vasco da Gama win.
Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Grêmio or draw 76%, draw or Vasco da Gama 49%, and either side to win 75%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-12 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama being played?
The match is scheduled for Arena do Grêmio, the home ground of Grêmio.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.