Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 26 · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Fluminense win
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Fluminense@ 2.05
Model +12 vs market
X Draw@ 3.35
Model −5 vs market
2 Vasco da Gama@ 3.65
Model −7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Fluminense or draw81%
Either side wins77%
Draw or Vasco da Gama42%
Goal lines
Over 1.577%
Over 2.553%
Over 3.531%
Under: 1.5 23% · 2.5 47% · 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely score
1–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Fluminense | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 18th |
| 42 | Points | 25 |
| 1.6 | Goals / game | 1.1 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 18th |
| 1622 | Elo | 1462 |
| €120m | Squad value | €105m |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 7
Recent form · last 10
Fluminense15 / 30 pts
- D
Paranaense3–3Fluminense - WFluminense2–1Clube do Remo
- WFluminense3–2Palmeiras
- D
Botafogo1–1Fluminense - DFluminense0–0Bahia
- D
Grêmio1–1Fluminense - DFluminense1–1Bragantino
- D
Cruzeiro1–1Fluminense - L
Mirassol1–0Fluminense - WFluminense2–1São Paulo
Vasco da Gama8 / 30 pts
- WVasco da Gama3–1Cruzeiro
- LPalmeiras4–1Vasco da Gama
- LVasco da Gama0–3Santos
- DBahia0–0Vasco da Gama
- DVasco da Gama1–1Mirassol
- L
Vitória1–0Vasco da Gama - LVasco da Gama0–1Mineiro
- LVasco da Gama0–3Bragantino
- L
Internacional4–1Vasco da Gama - WVasco da Gama1–0Paranaense
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 |  Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Fluminense: 58% on the win. Recent form for Fluminense: 3 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat across the last 10. Vasco da Gama bring 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Fluminense, while Vasco da Gama collected 1/12 away points in that stretch. The last 7 head-to-heads: 2 Fluminense wins, 1 draws, 4 for Vasco da Gama. Those meetings averaged 3.3 goals, with both sides scoring in 5 of the 7. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 53%. Our 58% on Fluminense sits above the market's implied 46% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
Our model's most likely outcome is Fluminense win, with probabilities of 58% for a Fluminense win, 23% for a draw and 19% for an Vasco da Gama win.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model puts both teams scoring at 52% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Fluminense or draw 81%, draw or Vasco da Gama 42%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 00:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, the home ground of Fluminense.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.