Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 25 · Estádio Joaquim Américo Guimarães
Paranaense vs Fluminense prediction result
How our call did
Our pre-match call was Paranaense win — the match finished Paranaense 3–3 Fluminense.✗ Miss
Pre-match picks, graded
Paranaense or draw
✓ HitUnder 2.5 goals
✗ MissBTTS: No
✗ MissEach dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Paranaense or draw74%
Either side wins71%
Draw or Fluminense55%
Goal lines
Over 1.568%
Over 2.541%
Over 3.520%
Under: 1.5 32% · 2.5 59% · 3.5 80%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%actual 3–3
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Paranaense | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Position | 4th |
| 45 | Points | 42 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.6 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 4th |
| 3rd | Defence rank | 6th |
| 1581 | Elo | 1622 |
| €76m | Squad value | €120m |
| 11 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 9
Recent form · last 10
Paranaense21 / 30 pts
- W
Botafogo2–3Paranaense - DParanaense1–1Bragantino
- W
Santos0–2Paranaense - D
Corinthians0–0Paranaense - WParanaense2–0Internacional
- W
São Paulo1–2Paranaense - WParanaense1–0Mirassol
- W
Clube do Remo1–2Paranaense - DParanaense1–1Flamengo
- L
Vasco da Gama1–0Paranaense
Fluminense15 / 30 pts
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 |  Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Pre-match model verdict
The model gives Paranaense a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Paranaense arrive with 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10. For Fluminense it reads 3 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home Paranaense have won 2 of their last 4; Fluminense have taken 3 of 12 points on their travels. The last 9 head-to-heads: 2 Paranaense wins, 2 draws, 5 for Fluminense. The fixture has produced 2.7 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 5 of the last 9. The draw is live here at 29% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 41%.