Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Matchday 26 · Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Cruzeiro vs Paranaense prediction
Best picks
Cruzeiro or draw
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Cruzeiro@ 1.75
Model −7 vs market
X Draw@ 3.40
Model +1 vs market
2 Paranaense@ 4.33
Model +6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw73%
Either side wins72%
Draw or Paranaense55%
Goal lines
Over 1.570%
Over 2.543%
Over 3.522%
Under: 1.5 30% · 2.5 57% · 3.5 78%
Both teams to score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Cruzeiro | Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| 6th | Position | 3rd |
| 39 | Points | 45 |
| 1.4 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 7th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 5th | Defence rank | 3rd |
| 1604 | Elo | 1581 |
| €175m | Squad value | €76m |
| 12 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 5
Recent form · last 10
Cruzeiro20 / 30 pts
- L
Vasco da Gama3–1Cruzeiro - WCruzeiro2–1Flamengo
- W
Corinthians1–2Cruzeiro - WCruzeiro3–1Mirassol
- W
Coritiba0–1Cruzeiro - LCruzeiro0–1Botafogo
- W
Internacional1–2Cruzeiro - DCruzeiro1–1Fluminense
- WCruzeiro2–1Chapecoense
- D
Palmeiras1–1Cruzeiro
Paranaense22 / 30 pts
- DParanaense3–3Fluminense
- WBotafogo2–3Paranaense
- DParanaense1–1Bragantino
- W
Santos0–2Paranaense - DCorinthians0–0Paranaense
- WParanaense2–0Internacional
- W
São Paulo1–2Paranaense - WParanaense1–0Mirassol
- W
Clube do Remo1–2Paranaense - DParanaense1–1Flamengo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 |  Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 |  Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 |  Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The model gives Cruzeiro a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Cruzeiro arrive with 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For Paranaense it reads 6 wins, 4 draws over the last 10. At home Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5; Paranaense have taken 13 of 15 points on their travels. The last 5 head-to-heads: 1 Cruzeiro wins, 2 draws, 2 for Paranaense. The fixture has produced 3.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 5. The draw is live here at 28% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 52% for Cruzeiro against our 45% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Paranaense?
Our model's most likely outcome is Cruzeiro win, with probabilities of 45% for a Cruzeiro win, 28% for a draw and 27% for an Paranaense win.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Paranaense?
The model puts both teams scoring at 49% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Cruzeiro vs Paranaense?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Cruzeiro or draw 73%, draw or Paranaense 55%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Cruzeiro vs Paranaense kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 19:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Cruzeiro vs Paranaense being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, the home ground of Cruzeiro.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.