Championship · Matchday 5 · Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium
QPR vs Middlesbrough prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
QPR or Middlesbrough
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 QPR@ 3.20
Model +3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.50
In line with the market
2 Middlesbrough@ 2.15
Model −3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Draw or Middlesbrough67%
QPR or draw60%
Goal lines
Over 1.577%
Over 2.552%
Over 3.530%
Under: 1.5 23% · 2.5 48% · 3.5 70%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 QPR | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 6th |
| 10 | Points | 7 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.8 |
| 11th | Attack rank | 3rd |
| 21st | Defence rank | 3rd |
| 1492 | Elo | 1590 |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Championship this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
QPR12 / 30 pts
- WQPR2–1Cardiff
- W
Blackburn1–2QPR - DQPR0–0Bolton
- W
Portsmouth1–3QPR - L
Ipswich Town3–0QPR - LQPR2–3Derby County
- LQPR1–2Swansea
- L
Millwall2–0QPR - DQPR0–0Bristol City
- D
Preston NE1–1QPR
Middlesbrough16 / 30 pts
Championship standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stoke | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 23 |  Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Middlesbrough a slim edge at 40% in a tight matchup. Recent form for QPR: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Middlesbrough bring 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 1 home win in 5 for QPR, while Middlesbrough collected 4/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 3 QPR wins, 1 draws, 6 for Middlesbrough. Those meetings averaged 3.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 7 of the 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 52%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 57%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our model's most likely outcome is Middlesbrough win, with probabilities of 33% for a QPR win, 27% for a draw and 40% for an Middlesbrough win.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
The model puts both teams scoring at 57% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Derived from the same model probabilities: QPR or draw 60%, draw or Middlesbrough 67%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does QPR vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 14:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is QPR vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is scheduled for Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, the home ground of QPR.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.