Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Palmeiras win
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw85%
Either side wins77%
Draw or São Paulo39%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely score
1–0at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Palmeiras | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Position | 11th |
| 52 | Points | 30 |
| 1.8 | Goals / game | 1.2 |
| 2nd | Attack rank | 16th |
| 2nd | Defence rank | 8th |
| 1723 | Elo | 1514 |
| €240m | Squad value | €81m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Palmeiras18 / 30 pts
- D
Mirassol1–1Palmeiras - WPalmeiras4–1Vasco da Gama
- L
Fluminense3–2Palmeiras - DPalmeiras0–0Internacional
- W
Vitória0–4Palmeiras - LPalmeiras1–2Mineiro
- W
Coritiba1–3Palmeiras - WPalmeiras1–0Chapecoense
- W
Flamengo0–3Palmeiras - DPalmeiras1–1Cruzeiro
São Paulo6 / 30 pts
- WSão Paulo2–1Bragantino
- LChapecoense1–0São Paulo
- DSão Paulo1–1Coritiba
- L
Grêmio2–1São Paulo - DFlamengo1–1São Paulo
- LSão Paulo1–2Paranaense
- L
Clube do Remo1–0São Paulo - DSão Paulo1–1Botafogo
- LFluminense2–1São Paulo
- L
Corinthians3–2São Paulo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 |  Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites at 61%. Palmeiras arrive with 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For São Paulo it reads 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Palmeiras have won 2 of their last 5; São Paulo have taken 1 of 18 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 7 Palmeiras wins, 2 draws, 1 for São Paulo. The fixture has produced 2.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs São Paulo?
Our model's most likely outcome is Palmeiras win, with probabilities of 61% for a Palmeiras win, 23% for a draw and 15% for an São Paulo win.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs São Paulo?
The model puts both teams scoring at 46% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Palmeiras or draw 85%, draw or São Paulo 39%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Palmeiras vs São Paulo kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-12 · 21:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Palmeiras vs São Paulo being played?
The match is scheduled for Allianz Parque, the home ground of Palmeiras.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.