Best picks
São Paulo or draw
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 São Paulo@ 2.18
Model −1 vs market
X Draw@ 3.20
In line with the market
2 Mineiro@ 3.50
Model +1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
São Paulo or draw72%
Either side wins71%
Draw or Mineiro58%
Goal lines
Over 1.568%
Over 2.541%
Over 3.520%
Under: 1.5 32% · 2.5 59% · 3.5 80%
Both teams to score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely score
1–1at 14%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 São Paulo | Mineiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Position | 8th |
| 30 | Points | 36 |
| 1.2 | Goals / game | 1.3 |
| 16th | Attack rank | 11th |
| 8th | Defence rank | 7th |
| 1514 | Elo | 1564 |
| €81m | Squad value | €89m |
| 5 | Form pts (last 5) | 11 |
Longer bars are better within the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
São Paulo6 / 30 pts
- WSão Paulo2–1Bragantino
- L
Chapecoense1–0São Paulo - DSão Paulo1–1Coritiba
- L
Grêmio2–1São Paulo - D
Flamengo1–1São Paulo - LSão Paulo1–2Paranaense
- L
Clube do Remo1–0São Paulo - DSão Paulo1–1Botafogo
- L
Fluminense2–1São Paulo - L
Corinthians3–2São Paulo
Mineiro19 / 30 pts
- WMineiro2–1Vitória
- D
Internacional0–0Mineiro - WMineiro3–0Grêmio
- DClube do Remo2–2Mineiro
- W
Palmeiras1–2Mineiro - DMineiro1–1Bahia
- W
Vasco da Gama0–1Mineiro - LCorinthians1–0Mineiro
- WMineiro3–1Mirassol
- DMineiro1–1Botafogo
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | +24 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +29 | 51 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | +7 | 40 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 32 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 13 |  Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Vitória | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 16 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -24 | 14 |
Model verdict
The model gives São Paulo a slim edge at 42% in a tight matchup. São Paulo arrive with 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats from their last 10. For Mineiro it reads 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat over the last 10. At home São Paulo have won 1 of their last 4; Mineiro have taken 8 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 1 São Paulo wins, 5 draws, 4 for Mineiro. The fixture has produced 1.9 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 10. The draw is live here at 29% — noticeably above the usual rate. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 41%. Model and market broadly agree on São Paulo (42% vs an implied 43%).
Frequently asked questions
Who will win São Paulo vs Mineiro?
Our model's most likely outcome is São Paulo win, with probabilities of 42% for a São Paulo win, 29% for a draw and 28% for an Mineiro win.
Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Mineiro?
The model puts both teams scoring at 47% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for São Paulo vs Mineiro?
Derived from the same model probabilities: São Paulo or draw 72%, draw or Mineiro 58%, and either side to win 71%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does São Paulo vs Mineiro kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 21:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is São Paulo vs Mineiro being played?
The match is scheduled for Estádio do Morumbi, the home ground of São Paulo.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.